Attention Delaware Valley small business owners and retailers: nearly half of the holiday shoppers are already spending money. According to the National Retail Federation, 49% of consumers will start their Christmas season shopping before Hallowe'en. 

Consumers plan to spend $997.73 on gifts, holiday items, and other non-gift purchases for themselves and their families this year, according to the annual survey released today by the NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics.

In all, based on forecasts from Deloitte, the world's largest accounting firm, Philadelphia consumers are expected to spend between $21.3 and $21.6 billion during the holiday shopping period. This would be a 7-9% increase over 2020.

"We anticipate strong consumer spending for the upcoming holiday season. As vaccination rates rise and consumers are more comfortable being outside of the home, we are likely to see increased spending on services, including restaurants and travel, while spending on goods will continue to hold steady. A steady decline in the savings rate to pre-pandemic levels will support consumer spending and keep retail sales elevated this season," said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's U.S. economic forecaster. "Further, e-commerce sales will continue to grow as consumers demonstrate an ongoing and steady movement toward buying online across all categories."

Philadelphia retailers are noticing that the opening bell for holiday shopping has rung earlier than ever for local shoppers.

There is cheerful news for small business owners from King of Prussia to Cherry Hill and every city and town in between.

Based on the latest projections from the National Retail Federation, holiday sales are expected to grow 3.6%-5.2% over 2019.  This means despite the economic ravages of the pandemic, Delaware Valley shoppers will be spending between $12.6 and $12.8 billion on gifts and other trappings of the season.

The NRF forecast is based on an economic model that takes into consideration a variety of indicators including employment, wages, consumer confidence, disposable income, consumer credit, previous retail sales and weather. NRF defines the holiday season as November 1 through December 31. Numbers forecast by NRF may differ from other organizations that define the holiday season as a longer period or include retail sectors not included by NRF, such as automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

"Consumers have shown they are excited about the holidays and are willing to spend on gifts that lift the spirits of family and friends after such a challenging year," says NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. "We expect a strong finish to the holiday season." 

“Given the pandemic, there is uncertainty about consumers’ willingness to spend, but with the economy improving most have the ability to spend,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Consumers have experienced a difficult year but will likely spend more than anyone would have expected just a few months ago."

Attention Delaware Valley small business owners. The five busiest shopping days of the year are imminent.

Based on data from the National Retail Federation, more than 3.2 million Philadelphia area consumers are likely to shop beginning on Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday.

“The tradition of Thanksgiving weekend holiday shopping has become a five-day event with consumers spending money in stores, supporting local small businesses, and online with their mobile devices and computers,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Even as people are starting to purchase gifts earlier in the season, consumers still enjoy finding good Thanksgiving deals and passing time shopping with family and friends over the long holiday weekend.”

Based on the NRF findings, here are the number of shoppers local business owners can expect on each of these five days:

Delaware Valley shoppers are expected to spend $12 billion this holiday season.  This will be approximately 4% higher than last year. These estimates are based on forecasts by the National Retail Federation and Deloitte.

To claim a fair share of the Christmas cash, local small business owners will need to battle some giant competitors. Advertising on Philadelphia radio stations may be the perfect weapon to ensure success.

According to information published in the retail trade magazine Chain Store Age, as of right now, here is where consumers are planning to shop...

Delaware Valley consumers are expected to spend $12 billion on this year's holiday shopping, based on predictions by the National Retail Federation.  This would be a 4% increase over last year.

Deloitte, one of the world's top four accounting firms, forecasts similar growth.

"The projected holiday season growth is, in part, due to the current health of the labor market,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's U.S. economic forecaster. “Near record-low unemployment rates, coupled with continued monthly job creation, may encourage people to spend more during the holiday season. The economy is still growing, albeit at a slower rate. Additionally, we continue to see consumer confidence elevated, which also helps boost holiday spending."

For most Delaware Valley retailers, holiday spending brings in about 20% of annual sales But, long gone are the days when the bulk of this shopping occurred between Black Friday and Christmas.